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This is more broadly reflected in average pay data, which declined slightly in July 2025, falling 1.1% compared to June and 6.9% since the start of the year.
This is according to the latest BankservAfrica Take-home Pay Index (BTPI), which tracks the monthly salary movements of approximately 3.8 million South African salary earners.
The data shows that take-home salaries in July averaged R17,144, down from R17,339 in June.
Shergeran Naidoo, BankservAfrica’s Head of Stakeholder Engagements, said the drop reflects pressure on workers, who have been caught between a weakening job market and rising rates and taxes.
Independent economist Elize Kruger said the data also tells a worrying story about employment trends.
She noted that the index is based on the total value of salaries paid into employees’ bank accounts, excluding those above R100,000, divided by the number of salary payments made.
This not only tracks payment levels but also the underlying movement of the labour market.
Salary payment data – excluding weekly and bi-monthly wages – shows fewer salaries in the R40,000–R100,000 range, pointing to job losses in higher income brackets.
At the same time, most new salary payments were concentrated in lower categories — particularly up to R10,000 per month and between R20,000–R30,000.
This has been the trend in the first seven months of 2025, which partly explains the moderation in average salaries paid, she said.
“Additional salaries at lower levels and losses at the higher income side could partly explain the depressed trend in the average,” Kruger said.
Unemployment data from Stats SA showed that job losses ticked higher in the second quarter of the year, with the unemployment rate now sitting at 33.2%.
Those getting paid should still get paid more
Still, the average nominal take-home pay for 2025 is expected to end notably higher than in 2024 — making this, on balance, a positive salary year despite the risks in the broader economic outlook.
In real terms—taking inflation into account—take-home pay also moderated further by 0.9% m/m to R14,660 in July 2025, compared to R14,798 in June.
These were still above year-ago levels.
With inflation forecast to average 3.5% in 2025 – compared to 4.4% in 2024 – and industry information suggesting an average salary increase above 5%, 2025 will be the second consecutive year of a real increase in earnings.
“This is a welcome tailwind for salary earners, supporting consumption expenditure and could assist in softening the impact of global headwinds on the local economy,” Kruger said.
However, a comparison between average headline inflation and the nominal average increase in the BTPI since 2017 suggests that salaries have recovered – but not fully after the weak years between 2021 to 2023.
“Salary earners continue to grapple with the higher cost of living. This impact is felt more sharply in July – the month notorious for annual municipal tariff increases – and serves as a stark reminder that some costs continue to rise well above the country’s inflation rate,” Kruger said.
Municipal tariffs are typically not reflective of a competitive environment, but instead mirror the realities within local authorities.
In many cases, these include inefficiencies, lack of maintenance, cross-subsidisation and corruption activities, all eroding available capital for service delivery.
Municipal services in Johannesburg, effective 1 July 2025 as an example, are notably up on 2024 levels and far above the current inflation rate. A similar scenario plays out in other metros.
“This trend, evident in administered prices, will remain a key obstacle to bringing inflation expectations closer to the 3% target,” Kruger said.
Issued on BusinessTech | https://businesstech.co.za/news/finance/835516/trouble-for-south-africans-earning-more-than-r40000-a-month/
