24 Aug, 2025

Major South African miner set to double headline earnings – but still make a loss

Major South African miner set to double headline earnings – but still make a loss

Sibanye-Stillwater expects its headline earnings to grow by over 100%, yet the miner will still report a loss for the first half of its 2025 financial year.

This is because of significant impairment losses related to its platinum group metals (PGMs) operations in the United States and lower lithium prices than expected.

Sibanye is one of the world’s largest primary producers of platinum, palladium, rhodium, and gold. It is also one of the foremost global recyclers of a suite of metals.

On Friday, 15 August 2025, Sibanye released a trading statement outlining its performance in the six months ended 30 June 2025.

This statement revealed that the company will report a significant boost in earnings, with headline earnings per share set to grow by over 100%.

This is mainly attributable to improved profitability from its South African gold and PGM operations and the recognition of Section 45X advanced manufacturing production credits at its US PGM mining and recycling operations.

Despite these positive developments, Sibanye still expects to report a basic loss per share. Notably, its basic loss per share improved by between 55% and 60%.

However, the positive impacts that led to this improvement were partially offset by several negative factors, including –

  • Impairments recognised at its US PGM operations and its Keliber lithium project
  • A net fair value loss on financial instruments, primarily due to estimated fair value losses on gold hedge contracts for H2 2025
  • Operational constraints at the SA PGM and SA gold operations during H1 2025, which increased inventory and ore stockpiles, and lower than produced metal sales

In addition, the company took a significant hit in the United States following the enactment of the Trump administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

This Act amended the treatment of Section 45X credits for critical minerals, which were previously assumed to be evergreen under the Inflation Reduction Act issued in October 2024.

Under the amended terms, these credits will be phased out in equal annual increments from 2031 to 2034, after which they will be terminated. 

The scheduled phase-out and termination of the Section 45X credits reduced the forecast value of previously assumed annual credits from 2031 onwards, resulting in the recognition of an impairment.

In addition, Sibanye recognised an impairment related to its Keliber lithium project due to lower forecast lithium prices and a change in the assumed discount rate. This reduced forecast cash flows and the estimated recoverable amount.

Sibanye will publish its full results for the six months ended 30 June 2025 on Thursday, 28 August 2025.

 

 

Issued on Daily Investor by Blanke Neethling | https://dailyinvestor.com/mining/98214/major-south-african-miner-set-to-double-headline-earnings-but-still-make-a-loss/